Susceptibility to supplies from China is one of the major concerns

In the past and present there have been times that the reliance on the imports of China have cost the end-use industries dear and for several intermediates and fine chemicals globally the closure of several units in China had led to soaring prices and have also caused delays and disruptions to production which was schedules here. According to one of researched report, the pharmaceutical industries in India have time and again been grieved, as the susceptibility to imported raw materials such as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and their intermediates are mostly from China.

Moreover, squirts in prices were recently seen in some naphthalene-based dye intermediates like H acid and in China its derivatives was attributed to closure of several manufacturing units.

As per the industry experts, to the chemical industry or to India the dependence on China for import of key raw materials is not only one of its kind and nowadays in the global market, China controls more than 80%. However, the reliance on imports from China is a contemplation of the developments in that country and to create an enabling framework the changes in the Indian pharmaceutical, agrochemical industries and the collective failure of policy makers are here, which will look after a much larger Indian fine chemicals industry.

As per the researched report, the shift in focus of several majors in pharmaceutical and agrochemical markets of India is one of the major reasons for the growing role for Chinese producers in these two industries. Nevertheless, for APIs, technical agrochemicals and their intermediates most of the Indian producers have evacuate their manufacturing base in order to focus on the part of the value chain which will bring them the best value.

On the other hand the leading Indian pharma companies have still continue to make APIs and have got lot more careful about their product line up and have opt to outsource or import the rest. Similarly, leading companies in agrochemicals are also putting more awareness to get their products registered and acknowledged amid farmers.

However the sway of China as a supplier of key raw materials not just to India but to the global pharmaceutical industry is dubious to moderate sooner, in spite of anxiety expressed on this count.

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Optimal usage of agrochemical key to raise food yield of India

Over the next two decades India is set to observe its largest ever phase of urbanisation and would like to keep food security without a scratch by promoting optimal usage of agrochemicals as a key to raise food yield of India. As per the industry experts the major plunge to the process of urbanisation is likely to confer through greater migration to cities with people looking for better opportunities and rising literacy. Moreover, in order to provide accommodation to the rural Indians who are moving out of small towns and villages in seek of better opportunities and growth the new government has precisely put an emphasis on creating new cities.

By expanding the urban space it is explicable that rural land will rapidly be guzzled amid rising pressure on existing cities and improved shove on creating new urban centre. However, this trend in past two decades has now already been seen as a Special Economic Zones (SEZs), industries, new residential localities and an expressway which stands on what were once known as lush green fields growing crops.

According to one of the researched report, in the four decades from 1971 to 2008 urban population of India had gone up by nearly 230 million and now it is anticipated to take only half this time to add the next 250 million. Moreover before the urban expansion, India was on the cusp of a never seen.

Furthermore, the production of food grain in India in the year 2011-12 had recorded 259.29 million tons, however the production of food grain has to be ensuring with rise in per hectare, as we have a glance at the scenario where the land which is under cultivation will decline with an instantaneous increase in population. Nevertheless, the boost in the production in order to congregate the budding need for food grains that can be achieved solitary through larger prominence on agrochemicals and their astute use.

As per the industry experts, aimed at sustaining agricultural practices the agrochemical consist of a wide range of chemical compounds, which contains insecticides to fight against insect attacks, herbicides to root out unwanted weeds that becomes parasites on the key crop and slow down yields, pesticides to protect the crop from pests and rodents and fungicides to prevent loss of crop owing to disease infestation.

However, through promoting optimum use of insecticides and pesticides and rising yield per hectare and minimising loss, one can plan to keep our food security intact in the next two decades as it is of utmost importance.

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Asia the key driver of growth for petrochemical sector of Qatar

Qatar which is known as one of the largest liquefied natural gas producer of the world has branch out its exports away from the oil and gas sector and amid demand from the region fuelling investment and expansion projects, Asia remains an important driver of growth for petrochemical sector of Qatar. Moreover in the Gulf region it is the second largest exporter of chemicals representing 17% of total chemical exports of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),as per the Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association.

According to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, supplies of energy to widen their industrial bases are being used by countries like Qatar and to enhance exports of non-energy goods such as chemicals with petrochemicals and refining activity building up to 40% of manufacturing output.

By the year 2020, plans are taking place to invest around USD 25 billion in petrochemical capacity to produce 23 million tons, in compare to the capacity 16.8 million tons produced in the year 2012, which clutches the rights to market, sell and distribute chemical and polymer products of Qatar globally, according to the industry experts.

As per the recent researched reports, one of the long-term expansion plans has been embarked by the petrochemical industry, based on the assumption that the demand from other emerging markets such as India and China will continue to develop. Whereas the second major expansion process is the USD 6.5 billion Al Karaana plant, which is 80:20 joint venture between the state-owned Qatar Petroleum and Shell, that is due to come on line in the year 2018. The Al Karaana unit will have a production capacity of 2 million tons that will add 25% petrochemical output to Qatar.

However, after an annulment of the USD 6 billion Al Sejeel petrochemicals plant the long-term outlook is less certain but by the end of the decade one of the megaprojects has been targeted to come on line. According to the industry experts, in the medium term prospects for petrochemicals producers are positive, that are helped by the rising demand and the sluggish velocity of new capacity being brought on line in North America.

Moreover, the demand of for high-density polyethylene has significantly increased above global GDP growth for a short time and Asia is noted for the strongest demand growth. Whereas over the next five years the demand growth for high density polyethylene in China is expected to somewhat slow down and is still expected to be above 6%. Moreover the unrelenting growth coupled with moderately few new capacity additions of China is expected to impel rising exports in particularly from the Middle East.

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Toxin Benzene in Hookah boost risk for leukemia

Hookah which is an ancient form of smoking is quickly gaining popularity amidst adolescents, as per recent studies as they consider hookahs to be safe, however the recent study has found toxic Benzene in the fumes that come from the water pipes. This toxic Benzene has led to an increase in risk of leukemia which is a group of cancers that by and large commences in the bone marrow and results in high numbers of abnormal white blood cells.

As per the reports, the use of burning charcoal is involved in hookah smoking which is needed to heat the hookah tobacco in order to generate the smoke that the smoker inhales. In addition to it carcinogens and toxicants that are inhaled are found in hookah tobacco smoke and moreover large quantities of charcoal carcinogenic emissions and combustion-generated toxic are also inhaled by hookah smokers and nonsmokers who socialize with hookah smokers.

Furthermore, Moassel which is the sweetened and flavored tobacco is noted as one of the most popular kind of hookah tobacco that consist of around 30% tobacco fermented with fruits mixed with glycerin and chemical flavors and molasses.

In the year 2013 in US few researchers found that at some point in time around 23.2% of female and 26.6% of male college students have used hookah. According to few researchers, as the practice of hookah smokings is often seen in social settings and have examined an uptake of Benzene in both hookah smokers and non-smokers who have been presented at hookah social events.

Moreover, S-phenylmercapturic acid (SPMA) which is a metabolite of Benzene have been found in both hookah smokers and non-smokers and the uptake of SPMA in smokers have augmented to 4.2-fold after smoking hookah tobacco at a hookah lounge, whereas on the other hand for non-smokers it has increased to 2.6-fold after attending an event at a hookah lounge.

However, research analysts call for intercessions to diminish or thwart the use of hookah tobacco, regulatory actions to limit hookah-related exposure to toxicants including Benzene, and comprise of hookah smoking in clean indoor air legislation, as they believe that there is no safe level of exposure to Benzene.

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Global petrochemical prices slumped by 4 per cent in October

The $3 trillion-plus global petrochemical industry witnessed a 4 per cent fall in October as upstream energy prices continued their downward spiral. Petrochemical prices fell from $1,384/mt in September to $1,324/mt.  On a year-on-year basis, petrochemical prices slipped 2 per cent from the same month in 2013.

Prices have fallen 10 per cent since October, around $8/mt a day, after a short period of price rise. The steep decline in prices comes at a time when crude and naphtha prices have also been falling. Brent prices declined by 10 per cent in October, while naphtha prices fell by 15 per cent.

Petrochemicals are used by a large number of industries, including construction, pharmaceuticals, aviation, electronics and are used to make plastic, nylon, rubber and other consumer goods.

Prices of olefins, hydrocarbon compounds that function as the building blocks to petrochemical products used to produce consumer products, also declined in October. Ethylene prices slumped by 6 per cent to $1,324/mt, while propylene prices fell by 1 per cent to $1,311/mt.

Polyethylene also slipped by 2 per cent in October and polypropylene prices slipped by 1 per cent during the same period.

Aromatics are scented hydrocarbons with benzene rings. Prices of this compound fell steeply in October. Benzene prices declined by 7 per cent to $1,181/mt, while toluene prices dropped 8 per cent to $991/mt and paraxylene fell by 12 per cent to $1,603/mt. The paraxylene market registered the largest fall.

The falling petrochemical prices were accompanied by a sluggish global equity market. The Nikkei 225 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a rise of 2 per cent in October and the London Stock Exchange Index fell by 2 per cent during the same period.

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Sanctions against Iran persists, Britain will not encourage Iran trade

In the conference which was held on 15^th – 16^th October, 2014 is noted as one of the largest gathering of Iranian commercial officials which takes place in London. The conference which took place last month in October, 2014 aim to attract capital, which Iran badly needs owing to its long isolation under international sanctions. On the other hand, as world powers endeavor to achieve a deal with Iran on its nuclear programme sooner than its deadline on 24^th November, 2014, the Europe-Iran Forum is being held at a politically susceptible moment.

According to the sources, Britain still does not persuade to trade with Iran and has withdrawn all the commercial support for trade, in spite of an easing of tensions, since Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has sighted as a realistic member of the clergy, in 2013 it succeeded the fiercely anti-Western Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Nevertheless, the country wants to diversify beyond pharmaceuticals to oil from technology to everything, amid a population of close to 80 million and more of its young people going into higher education.

According to one of the researched report, in the year 2015 the Iranian economy in the current fiscal year will rise up to 1.5% mounting to 2.2% and this rise marks a ricochet from a 1.9% decline in 2013. But before the sanctions bit it remains far from 5% growth rates achieved.

Nevertheless, isolation of Iran remains far over for all the improvement in the diplomatic mood under Rouhani. Last year in 2013, Tehran struck a preliminary nuclear agreement with the world powers which is known as the P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China, facilitated by the European Union), endearing a limited slackening of the sanctions. However the country made a little progress before the deadline on reaching a final settlement was being discussed in New York in the month of September, 2014.

According to the industry expert, a major investment attraction is being represented by Iran through a liquid and well-developed stock market and diversified economy, however this achievement of Iran might take some time.

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Jobs may be the key to resolve GCC oil dependency issue

Oil rates have dropped to $80 per barrel from around $100, which now raises the question whether these economies will be able to withstand the tests of time. Will these economies be able to flourish in an environment of fixed terms of trade?

This will depend on the condition in each nation. However, all the countries are bound by the need to increase generation of productive jobs and to improve skills and productivity of the workforces. Despite progress in economic diversification in some nations, this accomplishment will not be enough to offset the operational challenges. Dependency on the oil and gas sector has hardly changed in these countries.

Economic diversification may seem to be moving quickly, between 2007 and 2013 GCC non-oil GDP developed by 7 per cent per year, which surpasses the growth of a mere 2 per cent in the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, the share of oil and gas sector in the GCC economies’ GDP has increased during the past 10 years, primarily because of the climbing oil prices in the period, which increased the minimal value of oil output.

Analysts believe that the diversification that has taken place is to sectors that rely on inexpensive hydrocarbon feedstock. GCC governments have formulated a plan to expand their economy away from oil and gas, which has boosted investment. The investment ratio of these nations has grown from 21 per cent of GDP in 2011 to around 24 per cent in 2014.

A number of projects are in the pipeline and these projects will account for nearly 155 per cent of 2013 GDP, with just Saudi Arabia planning on projects worth $1.1 trillion. But the other investments in infrastructure may not point directly to diversification or sustainable development.

The major hindrance to diversification lies in the lack of education, skills and jobs. The poor quality of education results in poor development of skills and a lack of innovation in the economy, and this can be seen in the number of patents registered that originate in the GCC. The effects of an unskilled population are also reflected in the little money that has been spent on research and development.

GCC nations can be regarded as the world’s weakest performers in primary as well as secondary school levels, accompanied by nations like Yemen and Ghana.

Thus, education continues to weaken the region and GCC’s plans of boosting investments into human resources should gain utmost importance. It seems like GCC members spend much more on infrastructure than any middle/high income nation, while expenditure on education is far less when compared to several other countries, excluding Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This attitude towards education has led to reduced labour participation levels, especially among women. But when GCC girls surpass boys in global mathematical exams, then lower female participation levels cannot be explained by poor academic feats.

Labour force in GCC is growing by 3-4 per cent every year but the skills of the workforce remain underdeveloped, which makes higher employment rates and greater economic growth much more difficult to achieve.

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Petrochemical industry to facilitate storing solar energy

A new study has shown how electrolysis (the process of passing via water to separate hydrogen from oxygen in H2O) electricity could generate hydrogen to store renewable energy. The solar panels would provide extra electricity for electrolysis, producing hydrogen in the day. At night the hydrogen generated would be combined with oxygen in the air to produce electricity.

Chemical engineers at Stanford have modelled a catalyst that could possibly enable producing large amounts of pure hydrogen by means of electrolysis. Currently, pure hydrogen is derived from natural gas; industrial hydrogen is mostly used for petroleum refining and fertilizer production.

The research team intend to use electrolysis to derive H2 from water and then use the process to conserve solar energy. However to make this method industrially successful the research team must come up with a cost-effective way.

Electrolysis is typically a simple experiment: place two metal electrodes in water, and pass electricity through these electrodes which makes them acts as catalysts to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen gas. Platinum is a perfect catalyst for water-splitting process. However to transform this method into an industrial process a low-cost electrode must be used. Thus the aim of the research team is to make H2 without using precious metals.

The team intends to go further than using electrolysis to replace the existing demand for hydrogen. At present there is no economically viable and large-scale method to store solar energy. This research team thinks that electrolysis could convert gallons of water into batteries for preserving solar energy. With the help of electricity, electrolysis will break the chemical bonds that hold H2O together.

Breaking the chemical bonds of H20 will result in the production of a hydrogen ion- a proton with no electron to create a balance. A good H2 catalyst will provide the proton with a place to stick until it can use an electron to form a hydrogen atom on the catalyst surface and then combine with a neighbouring hydrogen atom to come off as H2. This method needs a catalyst with the right stickiness because if the binding is not strong then the ions wouldn’t stick and if the binding is too strong then the ions will never be released.

Platinum is the best catalyst but is quite expensive. In 2013, the Stanford engineers came across a type of molybdenum sulphide, typically used for petrochemical processing, that had some of the properties to act as a cheap yet effective alternative to platinum.

Petrochemical processing has certain similarities to electrolysis as petroleum feed stocks consist of a substantial fraction of heavy molecules. Petroleum refineries rely on catalytic reactions that use hydrogen to break these heavy molecules into lighter molecules.

Electrolysis also involves breaking water molecules or their chemical bonds. However, the researchers soon found a better way of producing hydrogen from water.

Petroleum processing includes scrubbing sulphur out of fuels in order to reduce acid rain, during which some of the sulphur atoms get integrated into petroleum processing catalysts, thereby boosting the activity of the catalysts. This scrubbing process armed the team with another idea- if they added sulphur atoms to a good catalyst, it would function as a better electrode for generating pure hydrogen.

The team decided to lace molybdenum phosphide with sulphur atoms, which resulted in the production of a new catalyst molybdenum phosphosulfide. This new catalyst was much more effective at creating hydrogen than its precursor. This catalyst was much more resilient, which is an extremely important property for a catalyst used in an industrial process. This new catalyst is also stable and has the efficiency similar to that of platinum.

Now the team at Stanford is trying to further improve the catalyst. The team has been relying on environment friendly methods, but these methods have been developed on the basis of concepts borrowed from petrochemical plants.

It is enthralling to see researchers link two totally different areas of technology for such a noble purpose.

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Is Mineral Oil really safe for you?

Mineral oil, a by-product of petroleum and an odorless, colorless substance, has become a much used ingredient of engine oils, wood preservative, facial creams, pesticides, hair care products, cosmetics and baby oil. Mineral oil is believed to relieve constipation, however recent studies show that constant use or exposure can prove detrimental.

Pregnant women who use mineral oil (orally) often can induce hypoprothrombinemia and hemorrhagic disease, which can lead to excessive bleeding in their new born babies. While, inhaling mineral oil by pregnant women can cause testicular cancer in the foetus.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported about a patient who had mineral oil injected into his lungs, leading to loss of vision, headaches, convulsions and brief coma.

Studies have shown that low quality or poorly refined mineral oil can lead to the development of skin and scrotal cancers after heavy exposure. Mineral oil has been classified as a carcinogen and tumorigenic by the U.S. Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical

Mineral oil is often used to treat constipation and its side-effects are associated with the gastrointestinal tract. Continual use of mineral oil can cause the oil to enter the anal sphincter and the pruritus ani or affect the skin outside the rectum. It can also slow down healing of postoperative wounds in the anorectal region and disrupt normal defecatory

Those working in the petroleum industry are exposed to mineral oil mist in the air, which can induce coughing, wheezing, respiratory tract irritations, shortness of breath or tachypnea. Mineral oil is considered to even cause lipid pneumonitis. The oil may even move to the lower lobes of the lungs leading to cyst formations and fibrosis.

Mineral oil users can develop vitamin deficiencies. The oil covers the mucosa of the small intestine and decreases absorption of vitamins A, D, E and K. Lack of vitamin K can inhibit the ability of blood thinners to function properly, which may result in PT/INR levels in the blood to go beyond safe ranges.

Avoid using baby products with mineral oil as it can cause your child’s skin to become dry and irritated. Maybe it is time to switch to healthier and natural alternatives to mineral oil.

Replacing mineral oil with natural oils that are derived from foods is a safe alternative. Natural oils that can acts as great substitutes for mineral oil in hair and skin products include olive oil, almond oil, apricot kernel oil, rose hip seed oil, wheat germ oil, sunflower oil, jojoba oil, grape seed oil and coconut oil.

The makers often forget their responsibility of manufacturing products that are not detrimental to their clients’ health. However customers should never forget to read the ingredients label before making a purchase.

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Weight loss supplements- a deadly dose of chemicals

Trying to shed those extra kilos by swallowing diet supplements? At the risk of sounding dramatic- these pills may not give you the figure you spent days wishing for, but it may kill you.

Several dietary supplements available in the US have been reported to contain a possibly dangerous synthetic stimulant that has never been tested on human beings. The presence of this stimulant known as DMBA has caused a furore among researchers and experts, who have turned to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

This stimulant has been listed on dietary supplement ingredient labels under different names.  The research group scoured the internet for supplements that marketed ingredients with names similar to the chemical name of DMBA, 2-amino-4-methylpentane or 2-amino-4-methylpentanamine. “All the FDA would need to do is look at the labels of the products that we studied and they could immediately see . . . that this is not an ingredient that was previously in supplements,” said the study's lead author Pieter Cohen.

The team even search for terms like AMP Citrate, 4-amino-2-pentanamine, 4-amino-2-methylpentane citrate, Pentergy and 4-AMP. The 14 products that matched their search were sent to the lab for further examination.

Out of the, 12 supplements included DMBA or 1, 3-dimethylbutylamine. This synthetic stimulant is similar to DMAA, a compound that according to the FDA can lead to heart attacks. FDA issued a directive to agencies and asked them to stop selling DMAA-laced supplements in 2012.

However, experts suggest that this is most likely just a fraction of supplements in the US that include this artificial stimulant. Manufacturers use DMBA because it has the potential to function like DMAA at higher doses. DMAA was advertised as a body-building and weight loss supplement. The FDA got numerous death and illness reports connected to DMAA-laced supplements.

The products that the research team sent to lab for analysis were promoted as sports or weight loss supplements. Council for Responsible Nutrition has requested the FDA to ban the marketing of AMP Citrate as a DMAA alternative. CRN is worried that the consumers relying on these supplements are likely unaware about the effects of AMP Citrate. FDA has not received the complete paperwork for this potentially dangerous substance.

FDA will possibly take action against agencies selling supplements with DMBA and AMP Citrate. Manufacturers are responsible for the health and safety of their consumers and they should submit a new dietary ingredient notification before advertising.

GNC is a global supplier of health products and is said to have removed products containing DMBA from its website.

Consumers who use supplements should return products that have the name AMP on their product labels. People should avoid these weight-loss supplements like the plague. Users should also avoid taking supplements that claim to include elements that will soon be banned.

All weight loss and body-building supplements may not contain these compounds, however being cautious costs nothing.  

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Monetary growth is possible with the development of chemistry

Invention is not alone enough but it is an intoxicating combination of invention and innovation that can jointly make life better. Into the 17th century the development of chemistry gradually became the basis after a medieval chemical science and a speculative philosophy aspired on achieving a universal cure for disease and life solutions. However in the second half of 19th century, perceivable brunt of chemistry on humanity in the course of its smaller incremental novelty was being experienced. Nevertheless through application science, chemistry has been the force behind making miracles on a daily basis.

According to the researched report, in order to support new innovation most of chemical industries globally in the year 2013 had invested USD 56 billion in research and development, however around 1-2% total turnover on research and development (R&D) was spend by the Indian chemical sector. On the other hand, chemical industry has spent around 5-10% on research and development (R&D) in the developed countries.

Moreover by the year 2021, the market size of chemical is expected to rise globally at 4-5% per annum in order to reach USD 5.8 trillion and the absolute size of this industry hindmost by the fact that to almost all the other industries chemicals provides raw materials. Additionally around the end-consumer the processes are designed, however the focus on customer-centricity above just customer satisfaction is what set apart the chemical industry.

In spite of all types of challenges, the commercialization process of lesser incremental novelty in chemistry has begun to get noticed in India and the industries which are carrying out today is primarily linked with customer-centric and innovation encroachments like sustainability, affordability and efficiency.

As per the industry experts, marketing approaches which are not specific to brand needs to be adopted by the chemical industry, also from its antiquated approach to segmentation it needs to back off more dynamic type which is helpful to the customer and similar industry.

However chemistry became pervasive in a multi-disciplinary world and this science has been blending in with cutting-edge technology for decades and to continue improving our quality of life, chemistry has been providing the groundwork and driving innovation. Nevertheless, in the midst of consolidation phase and restructuring the chemical industry stands firm these days, besides rising tie-ups of industry and academia is also needed.

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Demand for oil tumbles on the back of weak demand

Industrial output in Germany dropped in August, the lowest since January 2009, putting pressure on European equities and leading to weak demand for oil. Europe and China are experiencing stagnation, thereby making it difficult for the oil price to climb up.

The US Energy Information administration (EIA) made a discouraging forecast, which added to the bearish sentiment. Brent November crude fell $1.03 at $91.76 per barrel, while Brent dropped to a contract low of $91.25 on Monday. US November crude oil fell 96 cents at $89.38.

Iran has declared that OPEC does not intend to hold an emergency meeting to deliberate the drop in oil prices. OPEC oil ministers are slated to meet in Vienna on November 27 to consider making adjustments to their output of 30 million barrels per day. Unless OPEC doesn’t take measures to reduce supply, oil prices will likely remain under pressure.

Brent crude long futures and options positions on the Intercontinental Exchange fell by a sixth in the week to September 30, which points to the fading investor expectations for higher prices.

US crude oil output has risen over 3 million barrels per day since 2010 amidst a global economic slowdown and increase in efficiency has limited growth in oil demand. Experts suggest that the current oil market scenario represents the effect of the colossal rise in US oil production.

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Global crop yields may slowdown

Over the next two decades we may witness a slowdown in the growth of crop yields around the globe, thanks to climate change. In the next 20 years climate change will make it extremely difficult for crop yield to meet the ever-increasing demand.

New research indicates that the possibility of a major slowdown in the production of wheat and corn, despite the warming climate, is highly unlikely. However, the risk to crop yields is about 20 times higher and this would require environmental organizations as well as establishments affected by international food availability and price to formulate strategic plans.

Researchers used computer models of global climate and information about weather and crops to estimate the chances that climatic change would impact crop yields in the coming years. They stated that climatic trends would have a negative effect of 10 per cent on yields. This would have a significant impact on food supply. Growth in crop yields would continue but the slowdown would bring down the rate of growth by half as demand increases sharply.

Researchers found that the odds of natural shifts in climate causing slowdown over the next 20 years are 1 only in 200. However, when human-induced global warming was taken into account, the chances rose to 1 in 10 for corn and 1 in 20 for wheat.

Yield of crops like wheat and corn have risen by 1-2 per cent in the past few years and the global production of major crops is expected to hit 13 per cent per decade through 2030. The rise in global crop production during the next two decades can be attributed to population growth, increased per-capita food consumption and growing use of biofuels.

Researchers relied on simulation from an NCAR-based climate model as well as other models to figure out changes in temperature and precipitation over the next two decades for crop-intensive areas in the context of increasing carbon dioxide. They also made use of the same model simulations without human-induced increases in carbon dioxide to estimate trends in a natural climate.

They also performed statistical analysis to assess the effects if change in temperature and precipitation on yields of wheat and corn in different parts of the world and during specific times of the year.

The researchers affirmed that warming climate would lead to reduced yields. We can try and reduce the impact of changing climate by growing wheat and corn in cooler regions, however the researchers didn’t find sufficient evidence which could prove that adaptation strategies (changes in growing practices or crop varieties) would balance the impact of warming climate.

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Renewable energy may be the way out of economic quagmire for Egypt

Lack of abundant financial resources combined with the failure to form strategic plans is responsible for Egypt’s energy crisis.  Mohamed Shoeb, former president of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, said, "The energy problem is well known. Its solutions are also well known, but there is no will to solve it."

Experts suggested that the government should come up with innovative solutions. Solar energy is considered to be a viable and beneficial option for Egypt. Nations like Germany have formulated a plan to produce electricity from renewable energy by 2050. Solar energy has become extremely inexpensive; the cost of it has decreased by 90 per cent in the past 10 years.

Experts opined that smart electricity meters can bring down consumption in peak hours and thereby reduce electricity cuts. Power cuts have become frequent since 2008, but the cuts were limited to summer months. However, in the winter of 2012-12 blackouts became common.

The government can lower consumption of households that make use of several air conditioners or other power-hungry electronic devices.

Households can also increase use of energy saving LED light bulbs, which will reduce consumption by almost 20 per cent. "There are several ideas that can be studied and implemented, but we have been very slow," says Mohamed Moussa Omran, undersecretary of the Ministry of Electricity.

Despite being the first region to start use of solar energy, they were left behind by countries like Bahrain, UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have started use of smart meters. "Transparency is missing, and that is a problem that needs to be solved. The government thinks the people are not capable of understanding the problem," says Shoeb.

Egypt expects to use nearly 2,500 megawatts yearly for the next five years in order to meet the rising demand, at a cost of $2.5 billion per annum. Egypt would also require funds to set up power stations, and fuel needs would cost at least $700 million per station per year. Foreign investors are crucial to the process of developing power stations as well as the power grid.

Nearly 80 per cent of Egypt’s electricity needs are met with the help of natural gas, the production of which has declined tremendously in recent years as a result of political instability and rising government debts have made foreign energy companies hesitant to invest in development of new gas fields. 

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