Jobs may be the key to resolve GCC oil dependency issue

Oil rates have dropped to $80 per barrel from around $100, which now raises the question whether these economies will be able to withstand the tests of time. Will these economies be able to flourish in an environment of fixed terms of trade?

This will depend on the condition in each nation. However, all the countries are bound by the need to increase generation of productive jobs and to improve skills and productivity of the workforces. Despite progress in economic diversification in some nations, this accomplishment will not be enough to offset the operational challenges. Dependency on the oil and gas sector has hardly changed in these countries.

Economic diversification may seem to be moving quickly, between 2007 and 2013 GCC non-oil GDP developed by 7 per cent per year, which surpasses the growth of a mere 2 per cent in the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, the share of oil and gas sector in the GCC economies’ GDP has increased during the past 10 years, primarily because of the climbing oil prices in the period, which increased the minimal value of oil output.

Analysts believe that the diversification that has taken place is to sectors that rely on inexpensive hydrocarbon feedstock. GCC governments have formulated a plan to expand their economy away from oil and gas, which has boosted investment. The investment ratio of these nations has grown from 21 per cent of GDP in 2011 to around 24 per cent in 2014.

A number of projects are in the pipeline and these projects will account for nearly 155 per cent of 2013 GDP, with just Saudi Arabia planning on projects worth $1.1 trillion. But the other investments in infrastructure may not point directly to diversification or sustainable development.

The major hindrance to diversification lies in the lack of education, skills and jobs. The poor quality of education results in poor development of skills and a lack of innovation in the economy, and this can be seen in the number of patents registered that originate in the GCC. The effects of an unskilled population are also reflected in the little money that has been spent on research and development.

GCC nations can be regarded as the world’s weakest performers in primary as well as secondary school levels, accompanied by nations like Yemen and Ghana.

Thus, education continues to weaken the region and GCC’s plans of boosting investments into human resources should gain utmost importance. It seems like GCC members spend much more on infrastructure than any middle/high income nation, while expenditure on education is far less when compared to several other countries, excluding Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This attitude towards education has led to reduced labour participation levels, especially among women. But when GCC girls surpass boys in global mathematical exams, then lower female participation levels cannot be explained by poor academic feats.

Labour force in GCC is growing by 3-4 per cent every year but the skills of the workforce remain underdeveloped, which makes higher employment rates and greater economic growth much more difficult to achieve.

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