Over the next two decades
we may witness a slowdown in the growth of crop yields around the globe, thanks
to climate change. In the next 20 years climate change will make it extremely
difficult for crop yield to meet the ever-increasing demand.
New
research indicates that the possibility of a major slowdown in the production
of wheat and corn, despite the warming climate, is highly unlikely. However,
the risk to crop yields is about 20 times higher and this would require
environmental organizations as well as establishments affected by international
food availability and price to formulate strategic plans.
Researchers
used computer models of global climate and information about weather and crops
to estimate the chances that climatic change would impact crop yields in the
coming years. They stated that climatic trends would have a negative effect of
10 per cent on yields. This would have a significant impact on food supply.
Growth in crop yields would continue but the slowdown would bring down the rate
of growth by half as demand increases sharply.
Researchers
found that the odds of natural shifts in climate causing slowdown over the next
20 years are 1 only in 200. However, when human-induced global warming was taken
into account, the chances rose to 1 in 10 for corn and 1 in 20 for wheat.
Yield
of crops like wheat and corn have risen by 1-2 per cent in the past few years
and the global production of major crops is expected to hit 13 per cent per
decade through 2030. The rise in global crop production during the next two
decades can be attributed to population growth, increased per-capita food
consumption and growing use of biofuels.
Researchers
relied on simulation from an NCAR-based climate model as well as other models
to figure out changes in temperature and precipitation over the next two
decades for crop-intensive areas in the context of increasing carbon dioxide.
They also made use of the same model simulations without human-induced
increases in carbon dioxide to estimate trends in a natural climate.
They
also performed statistical analysis to assess the effects if change in
temperature and precipitation on yields of wheat and corn in different parts of
the world and during specific times of the year.
The
researchers affirmed that warming climate would lead to reduced yields. We can
try and reduce the impact of changing climate by growing wheat and corn in
cooler regions, however the researchers didn’t find sufficient evidence which
could prove that adaptation strategies (changes in growing practices or crop
varieties) would balance the impact of warming climate.
It is a vital piece of information..!!
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