The Western sanctions imposed upon Iran in mid-2012 led to declining oil revenues and a wobbly economy. If sanctions on the Islamic Republic are fully lifted, Tehran will have to persevere to regain the share of world oil markets it lost.
 |
| iran oil |
Six countries namely China, Japan, Taiwan, India, Turkey and South Korea continue purchasing Iranian crude, but under exemption from US financial sanctions for which they have to reduce import of Iranian oil.
Since the sanctions came into force, Iran has lost market share in all these countries. Taiwan’s import volumes are rather small and inconsistent. Combined imports of crude oil from Iran by China, Japan and South Korea hit 1.09 million bpd in 2011, a year before the sanctions came into force. In 2013, the combined imports were at 740,000 bpd- a decline of 33.27 per cent from the 2011 level.
Over the same period, the combined total crude import volume by the 3 countries was at 14.81 million bpd in 2013 compared to 11.18 million bpd in 2011, a rise of 32.43 per cent from the 2011 level.
Iran is the only nation with declining volumes, whereas other suppliers increased volumes. For instance, Saudi Arabia increased supply by 4.66 per cent, whereas Russia raised supply by 39.6 per cent. Russia has been delivering larger volumes to Asia- the perfect market for its ESPO crude blend considering demand and logistics. After Russia, the biggest increase in supplies was from Kuwait, Iraq and Oman.
In 2011, combined imports of Saudi crude by the 3 countries stood at 2.895 million bpd. In 2012, Saudi raised supply by 7.36 per cent to 3.108 million bpd. In 2013, Saudi reduced volumes by 2.5 per cent to 3.03 million bpd. Imports from the UAE also increased by over 10 per cent to 1.325 million bpd in the previous year from 1.2 million bpd in 2011 and 2012.
In 2011-13, imports from Qatar to Japan and South Korea increased from 634,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd- a rise of 10.41 per cent.
Imports from Oman rose by 22.9 per cent to 601,000 bpd in the previous year from 489,000 bpd in 2011. In Iraq, imports increased from 620,000 bpd in 2011 to 784,000 bpd in 2013- a rise of 26.25 per cent. Iraq’s supply increase was concentrated on China.
Iraqi imports increased to 472,000 bpd in 2013 from 277,000 bpd in 2011. Japan’s import of crude oil from Iraq declined to 63,000 bpd fro, 99,000 bpd- a drop of 36 per cent between 2011 and 2013. While South Korea’s imports of Iraqi crude, at 249,000 bpd in 2013, showed little change.
Combined crude imports from Kuwait increased to 882,000 bpd in 2013 from 753,000 bpd in 2011- an increase of 17.13 per cent. For Saudi Arabia the greatest year-on-year percentage increase was in 2012, when imports from Kuwait increased by 21.78 per cent to 917,000 bpd. However, between 2012 and 2013 import volume declined by 3.82 per cent.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE increased supply to China, Japan and South Korea by 516,000 bpd between 2011 and 2013.
Volume increase from Gulf exporters, including Oman, over the 2011-2013 period stood at 728,000 bpd, almost double the 369,000 bpd volume by which imports from Iran declined.
China witnessed increased supply from two other OPEC producers. Supply from Angola increased from 626,000 bpd in 2011 to 804,000 bpd in 2013, an increase of 28.43 per cent. Venezuela also raised supply from 231,000 bpd in 2011 to 316,000 bpd in 2013, an increase of 36.8 per cent.
No comments:
Post a Comment